Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer: Prevalence, Risk Factors, and Clinical Features Among Commercially Insured Adults in the United States.

BACKGROUND:  The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in patients younger than 50 has been rising over the last several decades, accounting for up to 25% of total cases. Despite the screening age recently being lowered to 45, a significant proportion of cases would still arise at younger ages prior to screening. Nonfamilial early-onset CRC remains a particular concern. Identification of risk factors and clinical features in this age group is needed to improve detection. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort analysis using claims data from the Truven Health MarketScan® Commercial Claims insurance database from 2007 to 2017, patients were identified with colon and rectal cancer, compared across three age groups (ages 18-40, 40-50, and >50), and analyzed for risk factors and clinical features. RESULTS: Female sex was more prevalent in the younger age group compared to age >50 (54% and 51.9% vs. 49.6%), with little change noted between rectal cancer age groups by sex. A higher percentage of younger patients were in the obese age groups compared with older groups for colon cancer, particularly the morbidly obese with BMI >40 (24.94%, 25.75%, and 21.34% in the three age groups). Abdominal pain was a common presenting symptom identified in the age groups <50 compared with age >50 (25% and 19% vs. 14%), along with hematochezia, weight loss, and anemia. CONCLUSIONS: Morbid obesity and female sex may be important risk factors among patients with early-onset CRC. The presence of abdominal pain was more common among the early-onset CRC cohort.

Surgery in Nonalcoholic Cirrhosis: Clinical Outcomes, Healthcare Utilization, and Cost Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of complications following surgery due to multiple factors, including portal hypertension and alterations in hemostasis. Improvements in perioperative management as well as risk stratification scores have helped improve outcomes, but gaps remain in our understanding of the cost and morbidity of cirrhotic patients who undergo surgery. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study using the IBM Electronic Health Record (EHR) MarketScan Commercial Claims (MSCC) database from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2017. Nonalcoholic cirrhotic patients who underwent surgery were identified based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9)/Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes for multiple surgical categories and matched with controls with cirrhosis who did not undergo surgery in this time period. A total of 115,512 patients were identified with cirrhosis, of whom 19,542 (16.92%) had surgery. Medical history and comorbidities were compiled, and outcomes in the six-month period following surgery were analyzed between matched groups. A cost analysis was performed based on claims data. RESULTS: Nonalcoholic cirrhotic patients who underwent surgery had a higher comorbidity index at baseline compared with controls (1.34 vs. 0.88, P<0.0001). Mortality was increased in the surgery group (4.68% vs. 2.38%, P<0.001) in the follow-up period. The surgical cohort had higher rates of adverse hepatic outcomes, including hepatic encephalopathy (5.00% vs. 2.50%, P<0.0001), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (0.64% vs. 0.25%, P<0.001), and higher rates of septic shock (0.66% vs. 0.14%, P<0.001), intracerebral hemorrhage (0.49% vs. 0.04%, P<0.001), and acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (7.02% vs. 2.31%, P<0.001). Healthcare utilization analysis revealed increased total claims per patient in the surgical cohort (38.11 vs. 28.64, P<0.0001), higher inpatient admissions (6.05 vs. 2.35, P<0.0001), more outpatient visits (19.72 vs. 15.23, P<0.0001), and prescription claims per patient (11.76 vs. 10.61, P<0.0001) in the postsurgical period. The likelihood of at least one inpatient stay was higher in the surgical cohort (51.63% vs. 22.32%, P<0.0001), and inpatient stays were longer (4.99 days vs. 2.09 days, P<0.0001). The total cost of health services was significantly increased per patient in the postoperative period for patients undergoing surgery ($58,246 vs. $26,842, P<0.0001), largely due to increased inpatient costs ($34,446 vs. $10,789, P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Nonalcoholic cirrhotics undergoing surgery experienced worse outcomes with respect to adverse hepatic events and complications, including septic shock and intracerebral hemorrhage. Claims and cost analysis showed a significant increase in health expenditure in the surgical group, largely due to the cost of more frequent and longer inpatient admissions.

Diagnosis of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Beyond Childhood is Associated with Worse Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The elucidation of differences between adult and pediatric-onset primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) may inform clinical decision making, and whether results of adult PSC clinical trials can be extrapolated to pediatric subjects. METHODS: A single-center retrospective analysis of PSC subjects diagnosed during the epoch 2000-13 was conducted. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were compared between PSC subjects diagnosed between 0-18 (pediatric) and 19+ (adult) years of age. An adverse outcome was defined as PSC-related death, liver transplant, or malignancy. Survival without any of these was defined as event-free survival. RESULTS: Analyses of 28 pediatric-diagnosed and 59 adult-diagnosed subjects revealed that incidence of early portal hypertension (PHT; P = 0.2), laboratory parameters of liver disease severity, and fibrosis grade at diagnosis were comparable between adult and pediatric PSC subjects. Adult-diagnosed PSC subjects had higher incidences of adverse outcomes compared to pediatric-diagnosed PSC subjects (P = 0.02). The age group 0-18 years (n = 30) had significantly better event-free survival compared to the age group more than 40 years (n = 25; P = 0.03). The prevalence of PHT in adult PSC subjects was 2.6 that of pediatric PSC subjects. PHT adversely affected outcomes in both adult (P < 0.001) and pediatric (P = 0.01) subjects. Adult PSC subjects were more likely to develop biliary complications (BCs; P = 0.001), ascites (P = 0.004), and variceal bleed (P = 0.03). Adult PSC subjects were more likely to have extra-hepatic co-morbidities (P < 0.001). Adult subjects had a longer follow-up duration compared to pediatric subjects (P = 0.06). CONCLUSION: Despite having a comparable clinical, laboratory, and histologic biomarkers of liver disease severity at the time of diagnosis, adult PSC subjects had a worse outcome compared to pediatric PSC subjects. Possible reasons for this finding include higher incidence of PHT, BCs, extra-hepatic co-morbidities, and longer duration of follow-up.

Training of computational algorithms to predict NAFLD activity score and fibrosis stage from liver histopathology slides.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its progressive form, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), has been increasing for decades. Since the mainstay is lifestyle modification in this mainly asymptomatic condition, there is a need for accurate diagnostic methods. OBJECTIVES: This study proposes a method with a computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system to predict NAFLD Activity score (NAS scores-steatosis, lobular inflammation, and ballooning) and fibrosis stage from histopathology slides. METHODS: A total of 87 pathology slides pairs (H&E and Trichrome-stained) were used for the study. Ground-truth NAS scores and fibrosis stages were previously identified by a pathologist. Each slide was split into 224 × 224 patches and fed into a feature extraction network to generate local features. These local features were processed and aggregated to obtain a global feature to predict the slide's scores. The effects of different training strategies, as well as training data with different staining and magnifications were explored. Four-fold cross validation was performed due to the small data size. Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) was utilized to evaluate the prediction performance of the machine-learning algorithm. RESULTS: Predictive accuracy for all subscores was high in comparison with pathologist assessment. There was no difference among the 3 magnifications (5x, 10x, 20x) for NAS-steatosis and fibrosis stage tasks. A larger magnification (20x) achieved better performance for NAS-lobular scores. Middle-level magnification was best for NAS-ballooning task. Trichrome slides are better for fibrosis stage prediction and NAS-ballooning score prediction task. NAS-steatosis prediction had the best performance (AUC 90.48%) in the model. A good performance was observed with fibrosis stage prediction (AUC 83.85%) as well as NAS-ballooning prediction (AUC 81.06%). CONCLUSIONS: These results were robust. The method proposed proved to be effective in predicting NAFLD Activity score and fibrosis stage from histopathology slides. The algorithms are an aid in having an accurate and systematic diagnosis in a condition that affects hundreds of millions of patients globally.

International population-based health surveys linked to outcome data: A new resource for public health and epidemiology.

BACKGROUND: National health surveys linked to vital statistics and health care information provide a growing source of individual-level population health data. Pooling linked surveys across jurisdictions would create comprehensive datasets that are larger than most existing cohort studies, and that have a unique international and population perspective. This paper's objectives are to examine the feasibility of pooling linked population health surveys from three countries, facilitate the examination of health behaviours, and present useful information to assist in the planning of international population health surveillance and research studies. DATA AND METHODS: The design, methodologies and content of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2003 to 2008), the United States National Health Interview Survey (2000, 2005) and the Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) (2003, 2008 to 2010) were examined for comparability and consistency. The feasibility of creating common variables for measuring smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and diet was assessed. Sample size and estimated mortality events were collected. RESULTS: The surveys have comparable purposes, designs, sampling and administration methodologies, target populations, exclusions, and content. Similar health behaviour questions allow for comparable variables to be created across the surveys. However, the SHeS uses a more detailed risk factor evaluation for alcohol consumption and diet data. Therefore, comparisons of alcohol consumption and diet data between the SHeS and the other two surveys should be performed with caution. Pooling these linked surveys would create a dataset with over 350,000 participants, 28,424 deaths and over 2.4 million person-years of follow-up. DISCUSSION: Pooling linked national population health surveys could improve population health research and surveillance. Innovative methodologies must be used to account for survey dissimilarities, and further discussion is needed on how to best access and analyze data across jurisdictions.

Generalization of the time-to-event continual reassessment method to bivariate outcomes.

This article considers the problem of designing Phase I-II clinical trials with delayed toxicity and efficacy outcomes. The proposed design is motivated by a Phase I-II study evaluating all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) in combination with a fixed dose of daratumumab in the treatment of relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. The primary objective of the study is to identify a dose that maximizes efficacy and has an acceptable level of toxicity. The toxicity endpoint is observed in one cycle of therapy (i.e., 4 weeks) while the efficacy endpoint is assessed after 8 weeks of treatment. The difference in endpoint observation windows causes logistical challenges in conducting the trial, since it is not practical to wait until both outcomes for each patient have been fully observed before sequentially assigning the dose of a newly eligible patient. In order to avoid delays in treatment for newly enrolled patients and to accelerate trial progress, we generalize the time-to-event continual reassessment method (TITE-CRM) to bivariate outcomes. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the proposed method, and we found that the proposed design is able to accurately select doses that maximize efficacy and have acceptable toxicity, while using all available information in allocating patients at the time of dose assignment. We compare the proposed methodology to two existing methods in the area.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between childhood infections and the risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

BACKGROUND: To determine whether childhood infections were associated with the development of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). METHODS: We included studies that assessed any infection in childhood prior to the diagnosis of ALL in children aged 0-19 years compared to children without cancer. The primary analysis synthesised any infection against the odds of ALL, and secondary analyses assessed the frequency, severity, timing of infections, and specific infectious agents against the odds of ALL. Subgroup analyses by data source were investigated. RESULTS: In our primary analysis of 12 496 children with ALL and 2 356 288 children without ALL from 38 studies, we found that any infection was not associated with ALL (odds ratio (OR)=1.10, 95% CI: 0.95-1.28). Among studies with laboratory-confirmed infections, the presence of infections increased the odds of ALL by 2.4-fold (OR=2.42, 95% CI: 1.54-3.82). Frequency, severity, and timing of infection were not associated with ALL. CONCLUSIONS: The hypothesis put forward by Greaves and others about an infectious aetiology are neither confirmed nor refuted and the overall evidence remains inadequate for good judgement. The qualitative difference in the subgroup effects require further study, and future research will need to address the challenges in measuring infectious exposures.

Prevalence of behavioural risk factors for cardiovascular disease in adolescents in low-income and middle-income countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although overt manifestations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) rarely emerge before adulthood, CVD risk factors are often present in adolescents. However, the prevalence and magnitude of behavioural CVD risk factors in adolescents in low-income and middle-income countries remains unclear. We estimated the magnitude and co-occurrence of behavioural CVD risk factors in adolescents aged 12-15 years for 65 low-income and middle-income countries between 2003 and 2011. METHODS: We extracted Global School-Based Student Health Surveys (GSHS) datasets from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website. Pooled prevalence estimates of current tobacco use, alcohol use, low fruit and vegetable intake, low physical activity, obesity and co-occurrence of CVD risk factors for WHO regions and overall, was calculated with random-effects meta-analysis. We explored potential sources of heterogeneity for each CVD risk factor through random-effects meta-regression analysis. FINDINGS: Between 2003 and 2011, of 169 369 adolescents, 12·1% (95% CI 10·2-14·1) used tobacco, 15·7% (12·3-19·5) used alcohol, 74·3% (71·9 -76·5) had low fruit and vegetable intake, 71·4% (69·5-73·3) reported low physical activity and 7·1% (5·6-8·7) were obese. The pooled regional prevalence of exposure to three or more CVD risk factors was lowest in the southeast Asian region (3·8%, 95% CI 1·2-7·5) and highest in the western Pacific region (18·6%, 12·8-25·3). Substantial heterogeneities within and across regions were not fully explained by major study characteristics. INTERPRETATION: In low-income and middle-income countries, adolescents carry a substantial burden of behavioural CVD risk factors, which tend to co-occur. Surveillance, prevention, detection, and control initiatives are a global health priority. FUNDING: None.

Seamless Phase I/II Adaptive Design for Oncology Trials of Molecularly Targeted Agents.

In dose-finding trials of chemotherapeutic agents, the goal of identifying the maximum tolerated dose is usually determined by considering information on toxicity only, with the assumption that the highest safe dose also provides the most promising outlook for efficacy. Trials of molecularly targeted agents challenge accepted dose-finding methods because minimal toxicity may arise over all doses under consideration and higher doses may not result in greater response. In this article, we propose a new early-phase method for trials investigating targeted agents. We provide simulation results illustrating the operating characteristics of our design.

Tobacco use in pregnant women: analysis of data from Demographic and Health Surveys from 54 low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, use of tobacco is viewed as an important threat to the health of pregnant women and their children. However, the extent of tobacco use in pregnant women in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) remains unclear. We assessed the magnitude of tobacco use in pregnant women in LMICs. METHODS: We used data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) done in 54 LMICs between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 1, 2012, comprising 58 922 pregnant women (aged 15-49 years), which were grouped by WHO region. Prevalence of current tobacco use (smoked and smokeless) was estimated for every country. Pooled estimates by regions and overall were obtained from random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS: Pooled prevalence of any tobacco use in pregnant women in LMICs was 2·6% (95% CI 1·8-3·6); the lowest prevalence was in the African region (2·0%, 1·2-2·9) and the highest was in the Southeast Asian region (5·1%, 1·3-10·9). The pooled prevalence of current tobacco smoking in pregnant women ranged from 0·6% (0·3-0·8) in the African region to 3·5% (1·5-12·1) in the Western Pacific region. The pooled prevalence of current smokeless tobacco use in pregnant women was lowest in the European region (0·1%, 0·0-0·3) and highest in the Southeast Asian region (2·6%, 0·0-7·6). INTERPRETATION: Overall, tobacco use in pregnant women in LMICs was low; however high prevalence estimates were noted in some LMICs. Prevention and management of tobacco use and exposure to second-hand smoke in pregnancy is crucial to protect maternal and child health in LMICs. FUNDING: None.